Saturday, December 02, 2006

And then what?

Decurion has a post up here that asks a reasonable question.

If we pull out of Iraq next year will we be heading back in 10 years or so?

I say there's little chance of that happening.

There are several variables in play.

Saudi Arabia has been exporting Islam quietly for decades, can Iran follow their successful model?

If Iran takes control of most of Iraq will the Saudis move militarily?

I see the 5 years after our withdrawal with a jaundiced eye.

Israel will likely fall at some point, and as bloody as that event will be the various Islamic factions will subsequently show us what a real civil war look like, since we've forgotten.

Europe is making itself impotent, even the threat to their petroleum supply won't be enough to rouse them to action. The Russians and Chinese will build up the capacities of their respective arms industries by selling to the highest bidder.

I see the above happening well before Decurion's 10 year timeline runs out.

If the Muslims do not do another open attack on US soil we will sit on our collective hands and watch from the sidelines.

Our whining will go unnoticed in the din. We'll pay the $10 a gallon gas prices.

There's not a chance in hell any sitting President will send troops to the area.

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