The Other Shoe

August 22, 2006? Would that I were prescient, but no.

Iran has announced missile tests - to mask an actual offensive missile strike?

[update] Iran flexes military muscle and says uranium enrichment goes on

Iran has fired tactical missiles during army wargames, as part of its preparations to face up to any outside threat.

State television said surface-to-surface missiles with a range of up to 250 kilometres were tested and that surface-to-sea missiles were also being fired.

No lesser light than Bernard Lewis observes:

What is the significance of Aug. 22? This year, Aug. 22 corresponds, in the Islamic calendar, to the 27th day of the month of Rajab of the year 1427. This, by tradition, is the night when many Muslims commemorate the night flight of the prophet Muhammad on the winged horse Buraq, first to "the farthest mosque," usually identified with Jerusalem, and then to heaven and back (c.f., Koran XVII.1). This might well be deemed an appropriate date for the apocalyptic ending of Israel and if necessary of the world. It is far from certain that Mr. Ahmadinejad plans any such cataclysmic events precisely for Aug. 22. But it would be wise to bear the possibility in mind.

Always hoping to see the silver lining, I'll offer this; a direct strike against Israel, nuclear or otherwise, will rattle cages that should have been opened long ago. Candidly a non-nuclear strike would be so foolish as to be unlikely, but in that event I hope Israel will do what they failed to do recently.

While I can't see the future I can offer some scenarios for the next week or two:

1 - nothing happens external to Iran. Speeches, posturing, and maybe a few missile tests. Iran is fresh off a victory, perhaps that will serve in the short term.

2 - Iran launches missile or two towards Israel, either with conventional or inert warheads. This will demonstrate they can 'walk the walk', coupled with a successful nuclear test they have another 'notch on their belt. In the past Israel would retaliate, but just now... who knows if they even could, especially if Iran does less real damage than Hezballah did with thousands of rockets?

3 - Iran does the deed! Israel retaliates and turns parts of Iran into a few more middle eastern glassy spots.

There are many more possibilities, shucks, if I could see the future I'd go buy a lottery ticket.

Serious point is that there IS a clock of sorts ticking, and we'd be fools to ignore the sound because it may be the timer on a bomb.